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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  November 11, 2012 10:00am-11:00am EST

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presidential campaign is started when hillary clinton goes to iowa state university and delivers a major address. >> come on, guys. the dust hasn't settled. can we marinate these results and unpack what's about to happen or just happened? >> let's all have blanket pledge to oppose anyone who shows up in iowa oh, i don't know, the next three years. >> for your scheduling purposes, there are 1,150 days until the iowa caucuses in 2016. i'm candy crowley. "fareed zakaria gps" starts right now. this is gps, the global public square. welcome to awe of you around the united states and the world. i'm fareed zakaria. how can the president and his team make sure to do it right? how can he avoid the pitfalls of so many second terms? i'll talk to two former white house chiefs of staff and david
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gergen, who has advised several presidents. then, what happens when you mix big data and a presidential election? the results are fascinating and a little scary. it might well be the future of politics in america. also, sea barriers, wetlands, futuristic construction materials. what is the answer to climate change and how can we all adapt to this new normal of hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods? i'll talk to jeffrey sachs and "time" magazine's brian walsh. and why is there such an antiqued way of voting? i'll take a look. but first here's my take. growing up in the india in the 1960s and '70s, ales thought of america as the future. it was the place where the newest technology, the best gadgets, the latest fads seemed to originate. seemingly exotic political causes, women's liberation, gay rights, ageism, always seemed to get their start on the streets
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of the united states orthopedic in the courts and legislatures. for me, tuesday's election brought back that sense of america as the future. the presidential race has been discussed as one that was about nothing with no message or mandate, but i don't think that's true. put aside the re-election of barack obama and consider what else happened this week. three states voted to legalize same-sex marriage, which is the civil rights cause of our times. one day we will look back and wonder how people could have been so willing to deny equal treatment under the law to a small minority. and tuesday will stand as one of the most important moments marking the end of that cruelty. two other states voted to legalize recreational use of marijuana, which will mark the beginning of the end of the war on drugs. this may be the most costly and futile war the united states has ever waged. we've spent $1 trillion to fight this war without reducing
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availableability of drugs while also destroying our pea nal system. according to data from the oecd. about 1 president 6 million americans were arrested in 2010 on drug charges, most for using marijuana. this week's votes indicates that americans have begun rethunking these policies, perhaps moving toward ones that would deprive drug cartels of their huge profits and allow police to focus on serious crime. perhaps the most sturching shift came not in the pass of a ball let measure but an exit poll finding, one that mierch move us. >> when asked what to do, almost two-thirds wanted to grant them legal access.
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john mccain had to run away from his own handiwork when he was campaigning for the white house. i hesitate to build a grand narrative out of all of this, but the trend seems to be toward individual freedom, self-expression, and dignity for all. this diverse embracen't is america's great gift to the world. one which others have always marveled. in 1990 the ne-yo conservative writer wrote a book called "the first universal nation," arguing that the u.s. was coming up with something you neechlkt that diversity, he said, is going to be america's greatest strength in the years ahead. the gop has taken to looking at this new america with anxiety and fear. he was right. what the world saw this week was a picture of america at its
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best. empty, experimental, openly minded and brilliantly diverse. for more on this go to there's a link to my "washington post" column. let's get started. -- captions by vitac -- let's get right to our panel to talk about just how you plan for a successful second term in the white house. my guests are all old white house hands. they are ken duberstein who was white house chief of staff in ronald reagan's second term. john podesta had the same job in bill clinton's second term and cnn's david gergen advised those two presidents plus presidents nixon and ford. john, you were there before and during the transition and chief of staff in the second term. how do you re-energize an
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administration going into the second term? is it important to change personnel, have new policy initiatives? what were your lessons? >> well, there's a natural changing of personnel because these are grueling jobs so a lot of people are going to leave. we know the secretary of state hillary clinton and sec treasury tim geithner are leaving. those are two of the all-stars in the administration. so there's going to be a lot of turnover. and what you want is both a certain level of experience in your personnel, but you also want some new blood, and i think the president met with his team and they're in the process of making the new selections. secondly you have to focus on what you want to accomplish, especially in the first year. the first year is the time to get a lot done. >> ken, do you think that it is possible to make -- to make decisions that -- personnel-wise that get you into trouble? there's this famous story of
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reagan's second term where james baker goes in with donald regan, the then secretary and said, mr. president, we've come up with an idea, let's swap jobs. >> right. it didn't work out so well sniet didn't work out so well. that while don regan might have been a good secretary of treasury, he was not a good chief of staff. >> right. look. the answer is, to follow up on what john said, you've got to open the circle. you need some fresh talent, yo need some fresh blood, you need some fresh ideas yochl u also have to learn from will lessons from the first term which means nothing is static, which means you have to start building relationships that you may not have had during the first term. john is right. you have about a year before you start getting into the next god-forbid election cycle. this is the time to narrow your agenda but be bold. what are the two, three, four things that you want your ton cy
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and prison dency to build the country around. >> david, a lot of people think it's not just a question of new personnel. the president in this particular case needing to to be more of a different style. do you think, "a," that's true, and, boris yeltsi"b," that's po? do you think they can change in the middle of their presidency? >> yes, you can. i think bill clinton became a much more effective president as john podesta can attest to. first, move quickly. that's what ken and john have both emphasized that. power does seep away very quickly in the second term. after the first year, people start looking at the midterm
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elections and then they say look over your shoulder. you have to proceed quickly. second lesson is dick new staff, our old friend has emphasized this over and over again. you have to employ hubris. i think in this case, the importance is for president obama not to overread the election results. understand them, use them electively but look at your style. often foreign policy, and as you know, fareed, again and again presidents spend more time on foreign policy than they do on domestic policy than they do in the skornld term. >> so when you're reading the election results, clearly the president was re-elect because of minorities, particularly hispanics. do you think that should mean we
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should not be surprised to see very prominent pointing of hispanics? ? is that one that begins to play immediately? >> i think that what you'll see really an emphasis from this president is on immigration reform. i think you'll see it on the republican side. i think they're ready to deal and come forward with immigration reform. but i think what's important to hispanic voters is whoo can he do on education reform, keep the costs of college down, what can he do to get jobs growing and try to find a way forward, again, in this gridlock city. i think you'll see a big emphasis on that early. and i think he'll be successful because the republicans are ready to deal on it now. >> i think they would put up a
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grand bargain and come to him first. i think it's likely the pass because the democrats really want it and the republicans very much need it right now. and on the question of governance, the president needs to learn from. some of the problems he's stel having, he needs to develop personal relationships. governor is not just about going around the country and ban storming as much as the president wants to do this in a second term. it was pointed out the president has played 105 rounds of golf, only one with a republican. >> so we're going to talk about how the president is going to try to develop a new more effect ivg governor style to deal with what is surely item one on the agen agenda, which is to stop the united states from falling off a fiscal cliff when we come back. [ male announcer ] citi turns 200 this year.
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one line, infinite possibilities. and we are back with ken duberstein, john podesta, and david gergen. john podesta, what does president obama do to ensure the united states does not fall off the fiscal cliff? you have already seen there's much debate about this and many people on the left, paul krugman in "the new york times" is saying do not make a deal just for the sake of making a deal, hold out and call the republicans' bluff.
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>> i think it was set up, one that was based on the president's argument. taxes needed to go up, particularly for the wealthiest americans. i think he has to stick with that. one thing he was clear about, he wasn't going to sign a bill with high end tax rates from the bush era. he's going have to negotiate with the republicans. if they have an ideal how to raise taxes from that group, i'm sure he's willing to listen to them. but i think rye now he's got to be successful in creating this fiscal framework that gives him the revenue that he needs to make the investment that he wants for the things like infrastructure, science and tack that he's talked about to the american people. he's going to be tough but befair to compromise. >> david gergen, the republicans
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say there is no mandate here but the president talks about the need for investment, the need for education, science, research infrastructure and talked about,000 pay for it. will that translate into leverage on capitol hill? >> some, but not a lot. you know, the truth of that is the president clearly campaigned on taxing the wealthy and campaigned about education and infrastructure and he ought to be tough on that as john says, but the big question is how do we avoid the cliff? i think we can. i'm optimistic we can. i think people often in washington are dumb but they're not crazy. but the danger jer is this. do i want a grand bargain or fight it out over a tax increase on the wealthy. i think if we get hung up on that issue, there's a higher chance we're going to go over the cliff. the issue ought to be how do we
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get revenue that's going to help, you know, settle this grand bargain. if he can get the republicans to agree to a framework that really will seriously increase revenue and inkreeps the tax burden on the weapon free. that needs to put in next year. i think that's a much more productive way. if if we's late on this question. both sights are dug in. i think eight ought to go to the beg err question, how with ke get revenue. >> the republicans have been remarkably inflexible on the issue of immigration. even sean hannity says his position has evolved. but no such evolution on the issue of o taxes. both boehner and mitch mcconnell
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said taxes will not go up, period. >> think you're missing the second part of the sentence which is they're willing to consider new revenue. there are lots of ways, excuse the expression, to skin a cat. i thought john boehner was emphatic when he said they're willing to open it with the right framework. thing this is a two-step deal. i think it's too ambitious with too little time to get to the grand bargaining, the so-called lame duck session of the continuation. but i think you can scrape together enough to avoid sigh kwenltd strain. remember, they have to come up with only about $100 bill to set that aside. between spending cuts and loophol loopholes, i think you have to raise that. >> onpodesta, does the magts
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work, though, which is if you close produkz for the wealthy people, can you raise enough revenue? >> i think that's the fund mental question. >> well, i thnk the -- you know, this baurng the really contentious issue in the campaign. i think the only way do that is to take enough of a bite out of the plan. >> thing what the republicans would argue, david, is that the big problem is tax hikes are here to say and spending cutting tend to fritter away. is there a way do it to put away super majority, which is to say if you now want to go outside of this framework and raise spending again you need votes, something like that so the republicans are assured you
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don't need that. you need two-tear tax hikes. >> that would be a good way to go. that has a lot of merit to it. i'm koj back to whether -- >> i think it's perfectly far for the president to say we need more. the wealthy would have to pay more, but you can do that within the framework of simpson-bowles. simpson-bowles didn't ask for tax increases or increases on their rates. what it asked for was to go through tax reform and lower the rates, in fact. >> ken duberstein, finally you were described as a rhino, republican in name only, how do you feel today? >> i think the republican parties has to revolve. to find out what the real identity is.
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go back to not purism but reality. you know, pure the is fine bus ints don't win elections. you have to be pragmatic. >> ken duber sten, john podesta, david gergen. thank you for a fast fating conversation. what a piemt. it also highlighted one glaring problem. a problem that puts bupd likes of venezuela and i raj. i'll explain when we come back. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about your old 401(k). tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you know, the one that's been lying around. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rollover your old 401(k) to a schwab ira, and we'll help you tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 find new ways to make your money work harder. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so if you're ready to teach your old 401(k) some new tricks... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550
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now for our 'what in the world" segment. imagine a day on election day where you know the results the
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minute the districts are closed. that i have the same rules and the same organized voeing procedure. it is managed by a nonpartisan indeath penalty body. sounds like the greatest dmom in the world, right? try mexico or france, germany, or brazil. certainly not the united states of america. america has one of the world's most antique politicized and disfunctional procedures for is elections, a patchwork of local laws with partisan officials making key decisions and an cement technology that often breaks down. there are no national standards. american voters in more than a dozen states, for example, don't need identification, but even india with a gdp 12% of that of ours is imblue meanting a national database for 1.2 bill voters. the voters in iraq dipped their fingers in purple to make sure they didn't vote again.
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there was an article recently written for and he tells the story about the 2000 presidential election. st. louis, missouri, has outdated voting equipment. st. louis was mostly democratic. george w. bush's campaign protested and the judge was overruled. meanwhile voting had already continued 45 minutes past the legal time. is that how elections should work in the world's greatest democracy? in most other countries an inopinion dent national body would make the big decisions, there would be nonpartisan observers at the polls and modern functioning ee dwimt. even venezuela had electronic voting booths with bioelectronic equipment around the country. we've been criticized around the world for this. i saw a scathing report about our election published by all places, russia.
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here's "the wall street journal's" translation of it. the electoral system are contra districty, archaic, and more overdo not meet the democratic prince pams that that the united states proclaims are fundamental to its foreign and domestic policy. we've seen attempts to shoren the early vote period to assure one party's chances of victory. the ballots can be dozens of pages. in some they're paper, in some election and it always falls on a tuesday, a work i day. every four years wee see the chaos of american elections but not changes. this week international election observers were banned from nine states. some of these men and women were threatened with arrest. maybe we should start learning from election officials from abroad, not try to throw them into jail. up next, big data in the presidential election.
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i'm dana bash in washington with a check of the headlines. finally a presidential winner in florida. cnn projects president obama will win the sunshine state with 50% of the vote. florida's tally marks the end of the 2012 race. obama's electoral vote now comes to 332, well above the 270 required to win. florida governor rick scott is ordering a review of the state's vote progress says after people waited in line for hours to cast their ballots. despite the presidential outcome in florida, the race for the 18th congressional district remains undecided. democrat patrick murphy leads republican incumbent allen west by 2,400 votes. and on this veterans day, you're looking at a live pi of arlington national cemetery where president obama will lay the wreath at the tomb of the unknowns in about 30 minutes. heal also make remarks.
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cnn will carry that ceremony live at the top of the hour. those are your headlines. now back to "fareed zakaria gps." did you know that obama supporters are likely to eat at red lobster and listen to smooth jazz? that romney supporters prefer to dine at olive garden and watch college football? well, big data does. big data. that is the buzz word for the immense amounts of information being captured about all of us in this interconnected age. it's a great boon for business, but unbeknownst to many of us, it was also used to a great effect in the 2012 presidential race. here to explain the choorls. charles, what is big data? why is it new? >> big data is -- two things have happened in the last four or five year, the first of which is everyone is now generating much more data throughout their entire life. when grow online, when use use
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your credit card, when you do something that allows any company to track your data, you're allowing them to track your preferences. companies and campaigns can now take that data and can crunch it within seconds to try and figure out who you are, what types of habits you have, what do you like, and what can push your buttons. >> so explain what the campaigns have been doing with this new data. >> well, one of the things the campaigns have done is try to vacuum up everything they can. it used to be when somebody was running for office, they would get a voter file. where they live, their name, and their party affiliation if they ever voted before. now each campaign has nearly thousands of data points on you. they know what magazines you order, if you ever went into bankruptcy or foreclosure, what kind of boat, insurance, where your kids go to school. thousands and thousands they collect to try to collect information on you.
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the same is how do i push your button to vote for my guy or my gal. >> and what do you find that -- you know, what are kind of the surprising things that are predictive of whether you're likely to be a republican or democrat? >> what's interesting a lot of it when you introduced me was the other places grow. we didn't know, for instance, that romney supporters go to olive garden and that obama supporters go to red lobster, but knowing that is actually really useful. because that means romney can go buy ads inside olive garden and say if you don't often vote, come out to the polls because i know you're going to vote for me. >> why were obama's people better at this this. >> obama's people were better at it for two reasons. the first of which is they had a lot more time to build it up. keep in mind they had four years to build this. when romney came to the campaign this year he really had to create the wheel that the obama people had been building for four years and building it
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bigger and bigger and bigger. the second is there was a fundamental approach. romney outsourced its data management. there was a big question going on. the romney folks would say, look, it's better to outsource because we can get the most cutting edge science. i think what the election showed is when you build it inside, you really own the knowledge, the technical know-how and that seemed to make a huge difference. the romney campaign folks i spoke to inside the campaign said on the election day they were blown away. they had no idea how much more obama knew about voters in certain areas and it just blew them out of the water. >> what gets people to vote? there are people who say, you know, once you've identified they're likely to be a democrat or republican, the trigger you pull, i read some where that shame is something you can pool like the catholic religion. >> that's true and mothers.
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if someone votes -- voting is a habit. so if someone votes, they're going to vote next time. you and i, we didn't have to be persuaded to vote. but there are people out there who are potential voters but not necessarily going to show up. there are two thing us you can . you can get a friend to call them or friends. that's why obama asked you to use your facebook log on so they can figure out who your friends are. hey, wi saw that your you're friends with rubin in nevada. could you give him a call and ask him to go vote. >> giving them a call is more important than i'm. >> absolutely. if you can get them to give the call. a lot of people, it's easier for them to e-mail them. they say do what you can. they pressure you to give them a call. they know the human contact is a social habit that will get the person to vote. the other part is shame. used a tactic slammer
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to this. what they would do is send people report cards, this is how frequently you voted in past elections, this is your voter score, we might follow up with you afterward to let you fwhoe if your score's gone up or down. they're trying to shame you by saying, look, there's someone watching, peering other your shoulder, and we know whether you show up or not. >> the important we hear when you hear about big data is should i be scared? do people really know all the stuff about the intimate details of my life on computer, my life -- you know, to what extent is somebody out there in david plouffe's office looking and saying, hey, charles, new york city, this is -- these are the four movies he watched streaming online in the last week. >> i think people can put their worries at bay for two reasons. the first of which is still by far the most predictive things
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are the basics, and the campaigns have known these for years, right? where you live, how much you earn, what your party registration is. unless you feel bad about people knowing these basics, you don't need to be wared in the new age. secondly they tried to annan miss the information. they could look to see if you went to barack obama's site wrrks did you go next. but they never linked up that user's number with a voter's name. now, that's because they chose not to. in future years they could. >> companies can. >> companies do all the time. far get, walmart, everyone else tracks who you are on line and offline and tries to match them together. and a question of whether you should be worried about it, i think it depends how much you value the sense of it. the truth is if you don't want
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anyone to track you, use cash. >> use cash and live in the cage. >> exactly. >> charles, thank you. >> thanks for having me. up next, we know there's a storm coming up around the globe. the only question is when and how can we prepare our cities, our towns, our infrastructure. right back. this is a fire ]
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hurricane sandy left a trail of destruction in its wake. it also left us with this statistic. three of the ten biggest floods in lower manhattan since 1900 have occurred in the last three years, and it's not just new york. freak weather seems to be here to stay all over the globe. on the one hand, the world needs to think about how to stop or reverse climate change, but in the meantime, we will have to figure out how to adapt to what is becoming a new normal. i'm joined by two distinguished experts. brian walsh, a senior writer for "time" magazine. he wrote a story on how to timeproof a city and jeff is the
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director of columbia university's earth institute. jeff, to what extent can we link climate change to hurricane sandy? what would be the fairest way to describe it? >> one thing we can start with is the ocean level has risen and the earn seaboard by almost a foot during the past century, and that means that storm surges are all the more extreme. the flooding was made worse by that and the sea level keeps rising and it keeps rising because of the glaciers melting and the ice thinning and the risk of massive increase of ocean levels are very, very real. so that's one very clear part of human-induced long-term climate change during the past century. whether the particular storm,
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this extraordinary storm, a tropical storm hooking up to this arctic storm and creating such damage on a long swath, that the hurricanol hurricanolo thifrp thinking about it. >> clearly not. they're not tinking of how to stop it hour to be adaptive. we've not ben doing what we need do. we're not doing our homework. when the engineers look at this in the united states, the infrastructure specialists, they're aghast and they've been telling us year in and year out our infrastructure is not up to even maintenance, but it's not up to the climate change that's
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also under way. >> what was it about this -- our infrastructure that made this worse than it had to be because in your -- as you say, a lot of this destruction was manmade in the sense that we had the wrong infrastructural or such -- or it was in such a state of disrepair that we caused a lot more damage than we needed to. >> well, it's manmade in a sense. we've put 4 million americans around the country within a few feet of high tide. those are the people who are vulnerable. it has happened. it's going to become a bigger problem in years to come. particularly when it comes to sandy, we still have hundreds of thousand of people who lack power. people lose power. so one simple way we can deal with that is try to put manufacture our our power lines under ground. that's one way to deal with it. and then we have to thing about
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what sort of infrastructure do we need to put away from the coast. one thing you know, you don't wasn't to put your backup generator in the basement as a number of companies in new york did. when the flooding happens, how do we make sure they're away from the water. >> when you look around the world, do you think anyone is doing this well, that is preparing for this kind of extreme weather, particular ly hurricanes, tornados, things like that? >> there are places like the netherlands who have been fighting the seas for century and they use the most modern technologies to put up sea barriers and prevent massive flooding and they have a lot of lessons to teach us. >> you know there's been this debate about creating a kind of almost series of barriers around new york, islands. is that -- from what you can tell in your reporting, is that something that -- a consensus
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that experts feel is better than these kind of big sea walls which are $10 billion or something like that? >> that's certainly a less expensive way and a way that would be less disruptive to the environment rather than the seawall which i'm sure would cost $10 billion. it wouldn't protect everything. can't protect all of it with the seawall. you may protect parts of manhattan and brooklyn but that might raise flooding levels outside the seawall. we have a huge political debate who got served worse when it cam to the response of the hurricane. i can only imagine what areas -- >> should we tell people you can't live that close to the coastline? >> first i think we should note for hundreds of years the world's biggest cities have located the coast. that's where you trade. that's where the world economy operates, sea-based trade has been organized the world economy
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for a very long time. >> but people would live a little bit further away from the actually water thain do now. >> there may be particular zoning issues to be sure but we have to understand great cities around the world on are on the coast and i think the great point is there's no way we're going to beat this just through adapts to the changes. we're on the path of raising the impacts so powerfully, so frighteningly that if we don't get the climate change itself under control, i don't think we'll ever catch up through patching, through these kinds of solutions, through emergency response. everywhere that i've been in recent weeks, than's usually a lot for me as i'm traveling around the world, nigeria recently, massive floods when i got there. i was in beige cbangkok recentl. i was remembering the one-year devastation when the whole city
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basically was under water and the economy took a terrible hit. there had been huge storms, huge sea surges, floods, not to mention -- and we should remember -- the u.s. went through its worst drought in modern history this year, the warmest 12 months on record. the warmest single month on record in july. so we're being hit on many, many sides. and i just want to emphasize that as we think about the protection which we have to do, we'd better turn to a low carbon energy system if we're going to have a chance against all of this because we need to slow down the human induced climate change as absolutely the first resort. we won't keep up with this damage otherwise. >> jeff sachs, bryan, a pleasure to have yu on. up next, a way to relive old history, bloody old history. back in a moment.
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>> and now our question this week. which political leader was but on his or her nation's freshly printed bank notes this week. is it "a," nelson mandela, b, ho chi minh, krjts, vaclav, havel or "d," benazir. this week's book of the week is robert cap lynn's "the revenge of geography." in a world in which you think economics, technology, and globalization have erased boundaries and created a new
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world, robert kaplan reminds us that the map still matters. where you are, where your neighbors are still has a profound effect on your destiny. now for a last look. one of the transitions is china's new leadership, and how they'll deal with increases tensions between china and many of its neighbors. but here's place where chinese citizens can work out some of those tensions by reliving old ones. it's a warfare-themed park where visitors and actors don the garb of either china or japan and fight to the death with toy weapon, thank goodness. hopefully the two sights won't resort to real guns any time soon. the correct answer to the challenge question was a south africa honored nelson mandela by putting his name on the newly issued bank notes, elephants, buffalo, rhinos, leopards, and


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